Energy Finance

According to news reports, U.S. factory orders dropped by more than three times as much as analysts expected in September. The manufacturing sector continues to suffer from the economic downturn. Meanwhile, a private trade group said Monday that its index of U.S. manufacturing activity fell sharply in October to its lowest level in 26 years.

Factory orders fell by 2.5% from August, more than the 0.8% drop expected by Wall Street economists. That’s on top of a revised 4.3% decline in August, which was the steepest in almost two years.

Excluding autos and aircraft, orders fell 3.7%, the steepest drop since 1992 when the department began tracking sector-specific changes.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, considered a good indication of business investment plans, fell by 1.5%. A 2.3% drop in August indicated companies are cutting back on investments, likely due to the economic downturn and difficulty getting credit.

However, big-ticket items like construction machines expected to last at least three years rose by 0.9%, up from a preliminary estimate of 0.8% last week. Meanwhile, orders for nondurable goods, which include food, clothes and petroleum products dropped 5.5%.

The Commerce Department says the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in 3Q. Businesses reduced their spending on equipment at a 5.5% pace, according to last week’s report. Yet orders for autos and auto parts increased by 2.7%, after plummeting 10.6% in August.

October sales sank 45% at General Motors Corp., 30% at Ford, 25% at Honda Motor Co. and 23% at Toyota. Those results followed sales drops of more than 30% in September for Ford Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp., Chrysler LLC and Nissan.

However, as gasoline prices have fallen, car sales might start to recover.

In a new Morgan Stanely report, Stephen Richardson says the dominant theme of 3Q earnings season has been capital preservation.

“The ability of the industry to withstand a prolonged period of weak commodity price and tight credit remains a key market focus. Downward revisions to ‘09 capex budgets have continued (now down $9 billion or about 30% from initial expectations from a cross section of industry players). While seismic and leasehold acquisition budgets have been reduced first, the magnitude of reductions have extended to reduced drilling activity. As 42% of U.S. land rigs are in the hands of private operators, our channel checks suggest that the operating environment for these operators is more dire than the public E&P’s. As a result, we continue to gain confidence in our view that rig count reductions will drive a rapid supply side response in natural gas. Our baseline assumption remains an approximate 500 rig reduction during ‘09 driving flat year-on-year production.

“Growth still matters. As E&P’s revise capital allocation and adjust the growth outlook, the equities remain vulnerable to outsized growth expectations. As a result, we remain focused on areas where the growth outlook is more secure despite commodity volatility. Highlighting the growth vs. liquidity debate is ExxonMobil’s 3Q results where an 8% production decline year-on-year overshadowed an unrivaled capital position.

“Natural gas is still facing near-term headwinds. The November NYMEX contract went off the board at $6.47 per thousand cubic feet and December is now trading at $6.78. Despite a number of forecasts calling for a colder than normal winter, the cash market can be expected to remain weak until seasonal demand patterns arrive. We are monitoring lower natural gas liquids fracs which are likely contributing to more near-term production, and liquidfied natural gas imports, where two additional LNG loads arriving in November are likely to re-introduce an element of import risk that has been absent from the market for much of 2008.”

The Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by half a percentage point to revive an economy hit by the most severe financial crisis in decades.The Central Bank reduced its target for the federal funds rate, the interest banks charge on overnight loans, to 1%, the lowest since 2004.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues said they would “monitor economic and financial developments carefully and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.”

“We believe that the tightening credit markets and lower commodity prices may temporarily delay some rig construction programs,” says Mark Urness, analyst with Calyon Ssecurities.

“These delays could result in deferment of bookings or possible cancellations for the rig equipment manufacturer, NOV, and some shipyards in Asia such as Hyundai, DSME and Samsung. In our view, these delays and possible cancellations have positive implications for leading deepwater drillers.”

According to ODS-Petrodata, there are currently 100 floaters under construction or on order, expected to be delivered by 2012. The tightening credit markets and declining commodity prices have resulted in temporary delays in some floater construction programs, he says. NOV, the world’s largest rig equipment manufacturer, secured three orders on the 12 deepwater rigs under LOIs issued by Petrobras in March.

“It is unclear when, and if, the other nine orders will be awarded, as some of the Brazilian contractors are having trouble obtaining financing. We believe that Petrobras is currently helping some of these contractors secure financing for the rigs,” he says.

The current construction program consists of 24 speculative newbuild floaters, being built by relatively less experienced contractors, that have not yet been awarded firm contracts by any E&P company and are expected to be delivered during 2010-2012. “We believe that these construction programs are at a greater risk of being deferred further until financing becomes more readily available,” says Urness.

The major rigbuilding yards in Asia include Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding. “We have identified 21 floater programs in these yards that could witness short- to medium-term delays due to financing issues. Samsung Heavy Industries is expected to carry out a majority (13 units) of these construction programs at its Geoje shipyard.”

E&P is a capital allocation game, and in a capital intensive industry, driven by a depleting asset base, the capital allocation process is perhaps the single largest driver of future equity value, says Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc research analyst Stephen Richardson.

“While lower (and falling) commodity price and tight credit continue to dominate the debate in the industry, the capital budgeting process for 2009 is underway. While capex cuts have been of focus to date, looking forward where capital is allocated (not the absolute level) is likely of more importance. Stock selection matters,” he says.

A key consideration for the 2009 capital program is likely to be drill it, acquire it, or buy it back, he says.

“As we have highlighted previously, much of the group is trading at reserve metrics back to proved reserve levels. With this in mind, and acknowledging that not all assets are equal and future development capital requirements differ across the industry, equity valuations are back to levels where acquiring reserves (either via M&A or repurchasing your own capital) may now be a better decision (on average) than organic drilling projects. We acknowledge that on a project level (versus a corporate level) incremental F&D and project economics are likely to attract additional capital, regardless of the availability of lower cost and or higher risk alternatives in the acquisition market. While operational concerns may dominate near-term decision-making, investing in the lowest cost barrels remains the best decision.”

A coming consolidation cycle? Not yet, says Richardson. Despite the sound financial logic of acquiring versus drilling, “we are unlikely to see material follow through on this strategy until credit market conditions stabilize. We expect capital preservation to remain the order of the day, particularly as commodity price volatility continues. It is the shrewdest capital allocators with funding capacity that are the likely beneficiaries.”

To reflect changing market conditions, Calyon Securities is adjusting its valuation methodology and now bases all target prices on a blend of 50% of net asset value and 2009 estimates of EV/EBITDAX ratio, which have been trimmed by 25% to 35%.

In coordination with Calyone’s head of oil and gas research, Hernan Ladeuix, it is lowering its oil and gas price forecasts for 2009 to $71.50 per oil barrel and $7.50 per million Btu, down from $96.50 and $8.00.

“We believe investors should focus on well-capitalized gas-levered names with strong balance sheets,” says Calyon’s Jeb Armstrong. “On average, we are lowering target prices by 49%.”

Due to liquidity concerns surrounding production deferred after Gustav and Ike, Calyon now bases valuation of ATP Oil & Gas exclusively on proved reserves. “We are lowering our ATPG target price from $56 to $16.”

“We are raising our ratings on two stocks based on valuation. We are upgrading WTI to ADD from NEUTRAL and ME to BUY from ADD. Both have a Gulf of Mexico focus and have seen their stocks get pummeled by the deterioration of the overall market and September’s hurricanes,” says Armstrong.

“In coordination with today’s note by Hernan Ladeuix, we are lowering our 2009 and long-term commodity price forecasts, which are incorporated into our new target prices. Worsening economic conditions, both in the U.S. and abroad, are the primary reasons. The U.S. is experiencing the worst demand decline in crude oil in more than 20 years,” he says.

Former federal reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said at a congressional hearing today that a flaw in his free-market ideology contributed to a “once-in-a-century credit tsunami,” according to Bloomberg News.

“I found a flaw,” Greenspan said. “That is precisely the reason I was shocked because I’d been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.”

Greenspan said he was partially wrong in his opposition to the regulation of derivatives. In May 2005, he said “private regulation generally has proved far better at constraining excessive risk-taking than has government regulation.”

Committee Chairman Henry Waxman, a California Democrat, pointed the finger at Greenspan by saying he “had the authority to prevent irresponsible lending practices that led to the subprime mortgage crisis.”

“You were advised to do so by many others,” he told Greenspan. “And now our whole economy is paying the price.”

Greenspan now says that firms that bundle loans into securities for sale should be required to keep part of those securities, and should create rules for settlements and to discourage fraud.

Greenspan said that financial companies failed to execute sufficient surveillance’ on their trading counterparties, and the breakdown’ was where securities firms packaged home mortgages.

Greenspan said, “As much as I would prefer it otherwise, in this financial environment I see no choice but to require that all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue,” giving the companies an incentive to ensure the assets are properly priced for risk.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. will set new quality standards for its Chinese suppliers, following a series of scandals involving Chinese-made products, which account for a major portion of the company’s sales.

Meanwhile, the United Nations recommended China increase oversight of its food safety system and hold businesses accountable for their products, amid the latest scandal involving tainted milk products.

Melamine, used to make plastics and fertilizer, was recently found in Chinese-made baby formula. The product has been blamed for the deaths of four babies and sickening another 54,000 children. It was added to infant formula to artificially boost nitrogen levels and make it seem higher in protein when tested.

Dozens of countries have pulled Chinese-made goods with dairy ingredients off their shelves to test for melamine. Contamination has turned up in Chinese-made powered and liquid milk, yogurt and other products made with milk.

Confidence in Chinese products has been sagging after high levels of industrial toxins were found last year in exports ranging from toothpaste to toys.

In 2007, melamine was found in a Chinese-made pet food ingredient and blamed in the deaths of dozens of dogs and cats in North America.

Later that year, Mattel Inc. recalled more than 21 million Chinese-made toys worldwide because they contained lead paint or tiny, detachable magnets that might be swallowed.

Chinese-made cribs were part of a recall this week by New York-based Delta Enterprises. The cribs were recalled due to missing safety pegs.

BlackRock Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. asset manager, said third-quarter earnings fell 15%. Investors, unnerved by the financial crisis, pulled money from its stock, bond and money-market funds.

BlackRock’s net income fell to $217.7 million, or $1.62 a share, down from $255.2 million, or $1.94, in 2007.

The bankruptcy last month of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and losses at a money-market fund run by Reserve Management Corp. triggered $53.8 billion in withdrawals from BlackRock’s cash and securities-lending funds.

BlackRock’s assets fell 12% to $1.26 trillion from the prior quarter, driven by $69.1 billion of market depreciation in its stock funds.

Before today, the stock fell 34% this year, compared with the 43% decline in S&P’s index of 16 money managers and custody banks.

Investors contributed $60 billion into BlackRock’s funds in the first half of 2008, more than they invested with any other publicly traded money manager in the U.S.

Previously, BlackRock was picked by the Federal Reserve in March to oversee $30 billion of Bear Stearns Cos.’ investments when the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm agreed to be acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co and was also called in by UBS AG to help manage a portfolio of mortgage assets.

Upstream capex cuts hold the potential to address near-term oversupply in North American natural gas and improve 2009 balances, says Stephen Richardson, analyst at Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc.

Lower rig counts are likely to take about three to four months before the supply impact is felt, but, using the cuts of 2001 as a roadmap, makes clear the potential for a material tightening of the supply and demand balances by the second half of 2009, he says.

The market remains exposed to near-term challenges of continued robust supply, winter weather, and weakening demand patterns. However, and perhaps more important for the equities, Richardson sees the potential for a change of sentiment towards North American gas as “evidence of producer discipline mounts.”

Compared to widely held near-term bearish sentiment towards crude, the gas market looks well positioned, as production is likely to adjust to lower prices (and tighter credit) to restore balances.

Also, with an increasingly challenged domestic economic outlook for next year, a key offset will be slowing gas demand (and in some cases, contraction) in key demand segments. His model suggests lower year-on-year weather-adjusted demand in both the industrial and electricity generation segments (based on the firm’s U.S economics 2009 GDP outlook of -0.2%). However, due to changes in the structure of demand centers since the last economic contraction, predicting demand impacts of an 2009 recession remains “more art than science.”

Despite improving clarity on 2009 balances, key near-term challenges remain. First, basis, particularly in the Midcontinent and the Rockies, remains an issue as key transport and storage outages have severely impacted regional prices. Second, frac margins have declined due to natural gas liquids oversupply and lower crude prices. Finally, additional liquids in the gas stream may increase near-term supply.