Leslie’s Notebook

Analysts are starting to estimate and calculate when the E&P and service sectors of this industry will look better–whether for stock prices or rig counts or commodity prices. All eyes point to second-quarter 2009. Those of us old enough to know better remember “Stay Alive ’til ‘85.” I’ve been trying to come up with a similar catchy phrase for Stay Alive til 2010, but I can’t seem to invent something clever enough that rhymes, just yet. 

Maybe “In the bull pen ’til 2010″?

Meanwhile, the Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count fell 3% or 64 last week to 1,725 rigs. This equates to a 12% (236 rig) decline thus far from August highs of 1,961 rigs, says a note from Pritchard Capital Partners. The decline included 49 fewer rigs drilling for natural gas. The Texas count fell by 24 rigs, Louisiana by 16 rigs, Colorado by 10 rigs.

These lower rig counts will take care of the over-supply of natural gas. Now, the economy and thus, energy demand, has to right itself. This will be the more difficult thing to do. It’s ironic that the better we get at finding, drilling and producing, the less people need our product.

Kind of like lower interest rates–if businesses and individuals do not want to borrow money at this time, even a zero-percent interest rate will not be any incentive to activity.

–Leslie Haines, Editor-in-chief, Oil and Gas Investor

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