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The Big (Mortgage) Bang Theory: It Isn’t Greenspan’s Fault

September 23rd, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Big Mortgage Bang has become a Big I-Banking and Big Mortgage-Insurer problem. Blame it on Greenspan? This reminds me of the anecdote of the new CEO who finds an envelope in his desk drawer with instructions from the previous CEO. The instructions are to, first, blame everything on the previous CEO, and to, second, write a note just like this and keep it in the desk drawer for the next CEO. 

I remember reading in 1998 while on a flight to Denver for the annual EnerCom Inc. energy conference a transcript of Greenspan’s testimony on why commercial lenders should not be in the I-banking business—why these should be distinctively different businesses. Commercial-bank accounts are insured by the FDIC; securities are not insured. 

Yet, businesses primarily in the securities business have managed to make themselves responsible for huge mortgage portfolios—traditionally the space of commercial lenders. This obfuscates the problem, as well as the solution. 

In the 1980s, the federal make-shift Resolution Trust Corp. took on failed mortgages—both residential and commercial—and ended up making a large profit. Today, there is no talk of an RTC, and not because the RTC did not work. Instead, it worked brilliantly well.

In all the current talk of what to do, propping up failed businesses and business leaders remains constant, in the name of preventing other business failure. Efforts toward dissolution, write-offs, take-your-hit-and-move-on endeavors—the fundamentals of business Darwinism and capital markets—remain elusive. 

The current situation may have been allowed to develop under Greenspan, but the laissez-faire approach counted on the federal government letting markets work (business Darwinism) and the greatest threat to capital markets now is that markets are not being allowed to work. 

There have been examples of intervention under Greenspan, such as with LTCM (Long-Term Capital Management). Private-sector capital partners underwrote LTCM’s obligations and, within six or more months, the LTCM ship was righted by natural market movement, and the 16 participating underwriters made a nice profit. (It is worthy of note that Bear Stearns did not participate in this, and missed a large profit opportunity—in hindsight, another example of “business Darwinism” under way….) 

As written in the blog posting The Greenspan Chronicles II: The Net Good Gained From Subprime Mortgages, Greenspan believed that it was better to let the overheated lending system make 7 bad loans while 93 good ones went through—or so. 

“This expansion of ownership gave more people a stake in the future of our country and boded well for the cohesion of the nation, I thought…,” he writes in his autobiography. 

Today’s financial-markets imbroglio are more the result of not letting the markets work, than of the economic expansion under Greenspan. All markets must find their line, and will almost always overstep them before finding they’ve gone too far. Let the small percent fail, so the rest can thrive. 

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, OilandGasInvestor.com Today, OilandGasInvestor.com, A-Dcenter.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com   See also these blog posts:

The Greenspan Chronicles V: It’s Nuclear!

The Greenspan Chronicles IV: More Corporate Governance Is Needed

The Greenspan Chronicles III: Wealth Vs. Happiness…Why ‘Millionaire’ Isn’t Enough In The Oil Business Today

The Alan Greenspan Chronicles I: Purchasing Civility By Importing Oil (Vs. Land Access)

Alan Out-Takes: More Notes From The Greenspan Dinner

Valentine’s Dinner With Alan Greenspan: Nuclear! Plus, Iraq And ‘Are We In A Recession?’  

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Why AIG? Why Lehman? Bernanke Answers

September 23rd, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke explained the Fed’s interest in propping up AIG and how aid to Lehman Brothers was unnecessary but not doing so represented further collateral damage to markets. “While perhaps manageable in itself, Lehman’s default was combined with the unexpectedly rapid collapse of AIG, which together contributed to the development last week of extraordinarily turbulent conditions in global financial markets,” he said.

As for AIG, the chairman has been “replace,” he noted, collateral is the company itself, interest is three-month Libor plus 850 basis points (more than 11%), and the federal government has equity-participation rights “corresponding to a 79.9% equity interest in AIG and has the right to veto the payment of dividends to common and preferred shareholders, among other things.” Here’s his testimony. 

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, OilandGasInvestor.com Today, OilandGasInvestor.com, A-Dcenter.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com   

Testimony by Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke on U.S. financial markets before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, September 23, 2008, from FederalReserve.gov

“Chairman Dodd, Senator Shelby, and members of the Committee, I appreciate this opportunity to discuss recent developments in financial markets and the economy. As you know, the U.S. economy continues to confront substantial challenges, including a weakening labor market and elevated inflation. Notably, stresses in financial markets have been high and have recently intensified significantly. If financial conditions fail to improve for a protracted period, the implications for the broader economy could be quite adverse.

“The downturn in the housing market has been a key factor underlying both the strained condition of financial markets and the slowdown of the broader economy. In the financial sphere, falling home prices and rising mortgage delinquencies have led to major losses at many financial institutions, losses only partially replaced by the raising of new capital. Investor concerns about financial institutions increased over the summer, as mortgage-related assets deteriorated further and economic activity weakened. Among the firms under the greatest pressure were Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, and, more recently, American International Group (AIG). As investors lost confidence in them, these companies saw their access to liquidity and capital markets increasingly impaired and their stock prices drop sharply.

“The Federal Reserve believes that, whenever possible, such difficulties should be addressed through private-sector arrangements—for example, by raising new equity capital, by negotiations leading to a merger or acquisition, or by an orderly wind-down. Government assistance should be given with the greatest of reluctance and only when the stability of the financial system, and, consequently, the health of the broader economy, is at risk.

“In the cases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, however, capital raises of sufficient size appeared infeasible and the size and government-sponsored status of the two companies precluded a merger with or acquisition by another company. To avoid unacceptably large dislocations in the financial sector, the housing market, and the economy as a whole, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship, and the Treasury used its authority, granted by the Congress in July, to make available financial support to the two firms.

“The Federal Reserve, with which FHFA consulted on the conservatorship decision as specified in the July legislation, supported these steps as necessary and appropriate. We have seen benefits of this action in the form of lower mortgage rates, which should help the housing market.

“The Federal Reserve and the Treasury attempted to identify private-sector approaches to avoid the imminent failures of AIG and Lehman Brothers, but none was forthcoming. In the case of AIG, the Federal Reserve, with the support of the Treasury, provided an emergency credit line to facilitate an orderly resolution. The Federal Reserve took this action because it judged that, in light of the prevailing market conditions and the size and composition of AIG’s obligations, a disorderly failure of AIG would have severely threatened global financial stability and, consequently, the performance of the U.S. economy.

“To mitigate concerns that this action would exacerbate moral hazard and encourage inappropriate risk-taking in the future, the Federal Reserve ensured that the terms of the credit extended to AIG imposed significant costs and constraints on the firm’s owners, managers and creditors. The chief executive officer has been replaced. The collateral for the loan is the company itself, together with its subsidiaries.* (Insurance policyholders and holders of AIG investment products are, however, fully protected.)

“Interest will accrue on the outstanding balance of the loan at a rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points, implying a current interest rate over 11%. In addition, the U.S. government will receive equity-participation rights corresponding to a 79.9% equity interest in AIG and has the right to veto the payment of dividends to common and preferred shareholders, among other things.

“In the case of Lehman Brothers, a major investment bank, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury declined to commit public funds to support the institution. The failure of Lehman posed risks. But the troubles at Lehman had been well known for some time, and investors clearly recognized—as evidenced, for example, by the high cost of insuring Lehman’s debt in the market for credit default swaps—that the failure of the firm was a significant possibility. Thus, we judged that investors and counterparties had had time to take precautionary measures.

“While perhaps manageable in itself, Lehman’s default was combined with the unexpectedly rapid collapse of AIG, which together contributed to the development last week of extraordinarily turbulent conditions in global financial markets. These conditions caused equity prices to fall sharply, the cost of short-term credit—where available–to spike upward, and liquidity to dry up in many markets. Losses at a large money-market mutual fund sparked extensive withdrawals from a number of such funds. A marked increase in the demand for safe assets—a flight to quality—sent the yield on Treasury bills down to a few hundredths of a percent. By further reducing asset values and potentially restricting the flow of credit to households and businesses, these developments pose a direct threat to economic growth.

“The Federal Reserve took a number of actions to increase liquidity and stabilize markets. Notably, to address dollar-funding pressures worldwide, we announced a significant expansion of reciprocal-currency arrangements with foreign central banks, including an approximate doubling of the existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank and the authorization of new swap facilities with the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada. We will continue to work closely with colleagues at other central banks to address ongoing liquidity pressures. The Federal Reserve also announced initiatives to assist money-market mutual funds facing heavy redemptions and to increase liquidity in short-term credit markets.

“Despite the efforts of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and other agencies, global financial markets remain under extraordinary stress. Action by the Congress is urgently required to stabilize the situation and avert what otherwise could be very serious consequences for our financial markets and for our economy.

“In this regard, the Federal Reserve supports the Treasury’s proposal to buy illiquid assets from financial institutions. Purchasing impaired assets will create liquidity and promote price discovery in the markets for these assets, while reducing investor uncertainty about the current value and prospects of financial institutions. More generally, removing these assets from institutions’ balance sheets will help to restore confidence in our financial markets and enable banks and other institutions to raise capital and to expand credit to support economic growth.

“At this juncture, in light of the fast-moving developments in financial markets, it is essential to deal with the crisis at hand. Certainly, the shortcomings and weaknesses of our financial markets and regulatory system must be addressed if we are to avoid a repetition of what has transpired in our financial markets over the past year. However, the development of a comprehensive proposal for reform would require careful and extensive analysis that would be difficult to compress into a short legislative timeframe now available.

“Looking forward, the Federal Reserve is committed to working closely with the Congress, the Administration, other federal regulators and other stakeholders in developing a stronger, more resilient, and better regulated financial system.”

*Specifically, the loan is collateralized by all of the assets of the company and its primary non-regulated subsidiaries. These assets include the equity of substantially all of AIG’s regulated subsidiaries.

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S&P Slams Buffett’s MidAmerican For Constellation Deal, But Profit Off Williams Bail-Out Is Good Currency

September 20th, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Here’s M&A “Jeopardy.”

Answer:  A troubled utility with hard assets, including a stake in more than 600 billion cubic feet equivalent of proved oil and gas reserves.

Question: What is a good target acquisition for Berkshire Hathaway?

Standard & Poor’s credit-rating analysts disagree. They’ve put BH’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings on CreditWatch with a negative outlook.

They report, “The announcement represents a sharp departure from our expectations that additional MidAmerican acquisitions would be squarely and narrowly focused on regulated, integrated electric and gas operations. MidAmerican’s willingness to acquire beleaguered Constellation reflects an appetite for risk that may be inconsistent with its ‘A’ category rating. About 85% of Constellation’s gross margins come from trading and merchant generation assets. MidAmerican’s expertise and track record in managing such assets is limited.”

The response is surprising, considering that Constellation’s E&P holdings are worth up to $2 billion on the market, and the total MidAmerican offer for the whole company is some $4.7 billion.Buffett stepped up in 2002 when The Williams Cos. was going under due to its energy-trading operations and general investor disenchantment with companies in this space (e.g., Enron, Dynegy, Aquila, El Paso Corp., et al.).

Williams had outbid Shell Oil Co. just a year earlier for Barrett Resources Corp.’s more than 1 trillion cubic feet equivalent of proved U.S. onshore reserves for approximately $2.7 billion. It mortgaged these and other E&P holdings in a more than $1-billion, 364-day loan from BH in 2002 at a more than 30% interest rate. Meanwhile, BH’s MidAmerican acquired some pipeline assets from Williams.

Williams paid off the loan early but still heftily. BH and MidAmerican made a steal of a deal.

Thus, that S&P’s analysts are doubtful of BH and MidAmerican’s outlook for a margin off the Constellation deal is surprising.

As for the S&P analysts’ outlook for Constellation, they report their BBB corporate-credit rating on Constellation remain on CreditWatch, but with “developing implications.”

“While we view the announcement as a potentially favorable credit development for Constellation, the acquisition will require shareholder, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Maryland Public Service Commission approvals. The companies expect these will be sought over the next nine months.

“Still, Berkshire’s action suggests a confidence in Constellation’s business in the face of tremendous negative market sentiment. MidAmerican has also indicated that it will allow Constellation to operate autonomously and pursue its long-term plans. Standard & Poor’s believes that this action, buttressed by the underwriting commitment by UBS and RBS for $2 billion, will significantly ease the pressure on the company to execute on its asset divestment plans to further shore up its balance sheet.”

Will Buffett and BH reel in a legendary margin again?

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, OilandGasInvestor.com Today, OilandGasInvestor.com, A-Dcenter.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com

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Meet Jarrett Lee…Where’s Your Freshman Company-Maker?

September 20th, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Did you see the LSU-Auburn game this evening? Once again, LSU made plays that would frighten most.

I wrote in May about the necessity of cutting the rogue quarterback Ryan Perrilloux, leaving LSU with sophomore Andrew Hatch and freshman Jarrett Lee. (See: They Fire Quarterbacks (Perrilloux) At LSU, Don’t They?)

The game this evening was LSU’s first test this season against a Top 20 opponent and a hungry fellow SEC-er, without Matt Flynn or Perrilloux. Hatch went down in the second half. Lee stepped up—and, with a rocket arm and fearlessness.

Like Les Miles, do you have team members who need to be cut? Who are (the other) SEC infractions in the making? Who bring down team morale?

You may have freshmen on the team who are company-makers in the waiting. Take a look around, or recruit. (For tips on recruiting and retention, see the third annual conference on this topic at HartEnergyConferences.com.

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, OilandGasInvestor.com Today, OilandGasInvestor.com, A-Dcenter.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com

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Near Term, Oil Down, Gas Up, Buysiders Tell Bernstein

September 19th, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Oil prices will rise in the long term, and natural gas prices will fall, reports Ben Dell, senior analyst for Bernstein Research, based on the research group’s quarterly investor-sentiment survey. Participants believe, however, that oil prices will fall and natural gas prices will rise nearer term, during the next 12 months, he says.

The survey was of 292 buysiders, energy analysts and industry members. Among the buyside members, 52% are buyside analysts and 43% are portfolio managers; some 10% are responsible for energy-specific funds. Most of the total survey participants believe oil prices during the next 12 months will average between $90 and $100; gas prices, between $8 and $9 per million Btu.

“The responses for the near-term oil price were only slightly lower than last quarter, despite a 21% decrease in the oil strip, but the responses for gas were sharply lower than last time, reflecting the 33% decline in the gas strip over that period,” Dell says.

Most participants believe spare global oil capacity, the cost of surfacing supply and the growth of emerging markets is driving oil prices. But, compared with the previous quarterly survey, fewer participants now believe in emerging-market growth and few cited capital flow the industry as drivers. Far more cited capacity and E&P costs as fundamental to oil prices going forward.

“It seems to us that the market is returning to a fundamentally driven crude price, or is at least perceived to be doing so.”

He adds that the favored energy subsectors are gas E&Ps and oil-service stocks, followed by integrated oils, offshore drillers and oily E&Ps. “Land drillers, constructions companies, refiners and utilities remain out of favor.”

He recommends XTO Energy, EOG Resources, Halliburton, Baker Hughes, Anadarko Petroleum, Apache Corp., Weatherford International and Newfield Exploration.

“One interesting thing to note over time from the surveys conducted is whether investors’ oil- and gas-price forecasts are above or below current pricing, which implies whether respondents believe that oil and gas prices are overvalued or undervalued. For oil, our respondents indicated in each survey that the oil price was too high and would come down, particularly during the second-quarter 2008 survey, when the most common choice for the 12-month oil price was $100 to $110, despite the fact that oil was trading at nearly $140.

“This quarter, investors believe that the actual oil price was 14% above where it would be in the coming year, which is in line with the first two surveys we conducted.

“In contrast, while survey respondents thought gas would fall during each of the three previous surveys, twice by nearly 20%, our respondents now for the first time think gas looks cheap and will rise over the next 12 months. This implies that our respondent base now believes in a move towards convergence of oil and gas prices, where the oil price falls and the gas price rises.”

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, OilandGasInvestor.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com

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Reflections Upon The Retirement Of Ike—How Your October Issue Of Oil And Gas Investor Was Made

September 19th, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

At this writing, Oil and Gas Investor art director Marc Conly and managing editor Susan Klann in Denver, where each home office, were packaging the final pages of the October issue.

Fortunate for the Oil and Gas Investor team, Marc and Susan were fully up and running in the Rockies throughout this week, as Houston team members continue piecing together home access to various services, and the Houston office remained downed by power failure.

One by one, each Investor staffer was reporting great news of restored power at their homes, running water, back-up landline phone service, cable and wireless Internet access. Publisher Shelley Lamb was here at my home when she learned that hers had lights again. We decided that, somewhere out there, an angel must have gotten her wings.

Pooling together what services were available to various staffers, a makeshift command center developed here at my home near the Galleria, which remarkably never lost power. It appears it is on the Neiman Marcus grid, since the Galleria shopping mall itself was shining brightly throughout Ike Night while transformers were blowing up throughout the city. Houstonians who could see the city’s skyline during the storm report that the explosions looked like images of the Baghdad sky during Desert Storm.

One trip-up: I did lose my Internet access (note to self: go broadband).

News editor John A. Sullivan lost power but had a working broadband card, as did Shelley, and each contributed Internet access. Both were air-conditioning refugees, as was editor-in-chief Leslie Haines, who sat on my couch with nearly 100 October-issue editorial page proofs, phoning remarks in to Susan in Denver.

Page International, which prints Investor each month, had messengered to my home from its Houston plant a print-out of the page proofs that Marc in Denver had sent, as my home printer/scanner is a struggling little Epson even on its best day (note to self: buy new/better printer)  and my Internet access to the files was spotty. (At times, I was able to pick up files from e-mails while accessing property-management WiFi from the pool. Yes, having to “work” from the pool: Priceless. But there was no laptop power-cord outlet there, a sensible pool-safety feature, so my work from the pool was always all too brief.)

From what resources they could muster, John Sullivan, A&D Watch editor Steve Toon and online news editor Stephen Payne were preparing news for OilandGasInvestor.com and the new A-Dcenter.com, and for the newsletters A&D Watch and OilandGasInvestor.com Today (fka Oil and Gas Investor This Week), as well as additional editorial for the October issue of Investor.

Financial editor Jeannie Stell was providing Leslie with air-conditioned overnight lodging, and was working on articles for the November issue.

Oh, yes—the November issue! Oil and Gas Investor is already on top of it.

We hope you enjoy your October issue of Oil and Gas Investor, OilandGasInvestor.com, A-Dcenter.com, A&D Watch and OilandGasInvestor.com Today as much as we have enjoyed making them.

Remember, your subscription to OilandGasInvestor.com means you get October-issue content online before it arrives in your mailbox. And, check out the new A-Dcenter.com, and find assets. You’ll do better deal-making for it.

And, to Ike, we say, “You tried your best, but Oil and Gas Investor doesn’t fall down. It just doesn’t.”

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, OilandGasInvestor.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com  

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You Missed The A&D Conference? Here’s A Ticket

September 8th, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Some 550 of your peers were there. Missed the 7th annual A&D Strategies and Opportunities conference and the encore A&D–The Workshop? See post-panel Q&A videos at www.A-Dcenter.com, or buy a ticket to the presentations and the DVDs by e-mailing cramirez@hartenergy.com.

Haynesville shale speakers included:

Tudor, Pickering, Holt veteran analyst Dave Pursell’s expert insight on “The Haynesville Shale: The Latest Well Results, Top Acreage, and Owners/Potential Sellers

Petrohawk Energy’s Steve Herod on “Moving at Hawk Speed in the Haynesville Shale” on building a stealth lease portfolio in the play; and

Goodrich Petroleum’s Rob Turnham on “Sell Partner or Drill: When to Exit a Lease Play, A Haynesville Case Study

Thompson & Knight’s Arthur Wright on “A&D Legal Issues in Emerging Shales,” particularly the Haynesville and Louisiana law.

And more hot topics on the agenda:

Anadarko Petroleum’s CFO, Al Walker, provided his outlook for the industry;

TAQA chief executive Peter Barker-Homek will present “TAQA’s Interest in Assets Overseas; Why Not the U.S.?

Plantation Petroleum’s start-up veteran Tom Meneley discussed “Going for IV: Plantation Petroleum’s Past, Present and Future Targets

– Successful GOM Shelf independent Northstar GOM’s Glynn Roberts, fresh from a sale, discussed “Divesting in the GOM Shelf and the Outlook for Shelf Prospectivity

CNX GasNick DeIuliis told the story of “Maintaining and Building Momentum Through a Minority Close-Out Offer

EV Energy Partners’ Mark Houser updated attendees on “Current Acquisition Challenges for the E&P MLPs, and How this Affects Buyer and Seller Opportunities

Scott Richardson, fresh from a merger of his own of Richardson Barr & Co. with RBC Capital Markets, presented “Price-Metric Comparisons by Basin and Play: What Costs More? Less? Why?

Meagher Oil & Gas PropertiesMatt Meagher described “Super-Funded Private-Equity-Backed Competition for Acreage and Producing Properties: What Assets Do They Seek?

Jefferies Randall & Dewey lead asset deal-maker Bill Marko discussed “‘M’ or ‘A?’ Types of Mergers and Acquisitions the Current Capital Markets Will Fund: Who’s In; Who’s Out

Scotia WaterousAdrian Goodisman answered “How Foreign Interest in the U.S. is Affecting Competition for U.S. Assets

See post-panel Q&A videos at www.A-Dcenter.com, or buy a ticket to the presentations and the DVD by e-mailing cramirez@hartenergy.com.

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, A-Dcenter.com; OilandGasInvestor.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com

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Consolidation, JV, Sell-Out: What’s Next For Haynesville Shale

September 8th, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

The bulk of “on the ground” mineral leasing is “probably over” in the Haynesville, says Steve Herod, executive vice president, corporate development, for Petrohawk Energy Corp., Houston.

The E&P was an early developer of the Haynesville play, having gotten into it by way of its Cotton Valley holdings and its merger with KCS Energy in 2006. The play sits under Cotton Valley.

Herod expects more joint-venture deals in the play now, and more private operators selling.

Some landowners are holding out for more than $30,000/acre, according to myriad reports. Shannon Nome, veteran research analyst at Deutche Bank, reported recently that leasing may hit $50K/acre before topping out.

According to Herod, activity may being move on from leasing.

Herod spoke Sept. 4 at the 7th annual A&D Strategies and Opportunities conference. Missed the conference? See post-panel Q&A videos at www.A-Dcenter.com, or buy a ticket to the presentations and the DVD by e-mailing cramirez@hartenergy.com.

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, A-Dcenter.com; OilandGasInvestor.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com

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Got Ceramic Proppant? Don’t Go To Haynesville Without It

September 8th, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Dave Pursell, senior research analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities Inc. in Houston, says the Haynesville has to be developed with ceramic proppant. Other proppants include sand, but the Haynesville needs a special, more sophisticated product.

There are currently two suppliers of ceramic proppant in the U.S.–Carbo Ceramics and Norton.

Pursell says these are running full-out already, and additional capacity from either will take years. Meanwhile, ceramic proppant may come from…China?

“You have quality issues,” he says.

To develop the Haynesville, with its gas-rich and relatively inexpensive well potential, it may require that the operator be plugged in well with ceramic-proppant suppliers.

Pursell also says U.S. natural gas futures have figured the Haynesville, which he says “is real,” will bring on more gas supply than forward demand, thus resulting in the current softening of futures prices. Without the ceramic proppant, though, that gas isn’t coming in with the Bs that the market may expect from an ordinary play. 

Pursell spoke Sept. 4 at the 7th annual A&D Strategies and Opportunities conference. Missed the conference? See post-panel Q&A videos at www.A-Dcenter.com, or buy a ticket to the presentations and the DVD by e-mailing cramirez@hartenergy.com.

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, A-Dcenter.com; OilandGasInvestor.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com

Full Disclosure: A family member held an interest in Carbo Ceramics at one time.

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We’ve Got Haynesville Shale Speakers For You–Sept. 4 In Dallas; Sign Up Now

August 13th, 2008 ndarbonne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

We’ve got Haynesville shale speakers planned for you Sept. 4 in Dallas at the 7th annual A&D Strategies and Opportunities Conference—and more! Can’t be there yourself? Make sure members of your BD team will be. Some 550 A&D leaders—from asset buyers and sellers to marketers to financiers to investors—were there last year.

Top business and industry leaders expected to present this year include:

Tudor, Pickering, Holt veteran analyst Dave Pursell’s expert insight on “The Haynesville Shale: The Latest Well Results, Top Acreage, and Owners/Potential Sellers

Petrohawk Energy’s Steve Herod on “Moving at Hawk Speed in the Haynesville Shale” on building a stealth lease portfolio in the play; and

Goodrich Petroleum’s Rob Turnham on “Sell Partner or Drill: When to Exit a Lease Play, A Haynesville Case Study

And more hot topics are on the agenda:

Anadarko Petroleum’s CFO, Al Walker, will provide his outlook for the industry;

TAQA chief executive Peter Barker-Homek will present “TAQA’s Interest in Assets Overseas; Why Not the U.S.?

Standard & Poor’s will reveal stealth-research strategy in “Distressed Sellers: How To Find Them Pre-Emptively

Plantation Petroleum’s start-up veteran Tom Meneley will discuss “Going for IV: Plantation Petroleum’s Past, Present and Future Targets

– Successful GOM Shelf independent Northstar GOM’s Glynn Roberts, fresh from a sale, will discuss “Divesting in the GOM Shelf and the Outlook for Shelf Prospectivity

CNX GasNick DeIuliis will tell the story of “Maintaining and Building Momentum Through a Minority Close-Out Offer

EV Energy Partners’ Mark Houser will update attendees on “Current Acquisition Challenges for the E&P MLPs, and How this Affects Buyer and Seller Opportunities

Scott Richardson, fresh from a merger of his own of Richardson Barr & Co. with RBC Capital Markets, will present “Price-Metric Comparisons by Basin and Play: What Costs More? Less? Why?

Meagher Oil & Gas PropertiesMatt Meagher will describe “Super-Funded Private-Equity-Backed Competition for Acreage and Producing Properties: What Assets Do They Seek?

Jefferies Randall & Dewey lead asset deal-maker Bill Marko will discuss “‘M’ or ‘A?’ Types of Mergers and Acquisitions the Current Capital Markets Will Fund: Who’s In; Who’s Out

Scotia WaterousAdrian Goodisman will answer “How Foreign Interest in the U.S. is Affecting Competition for U.S. Assets

Sign up for the A&D Strategies and Opportunities Conference! Also, send your BD team to this encore tutorial: A&D—The Workshop, co-presented by The Oil & Gas Asset Clearinghouse.

–Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, OilandGasInvestor.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com  

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