Energy Politics

Ah, who doesn’t love science fiction? Extrapolating future scenarios based on current trends is what businesses do all the time, but factoring in social function to the mix has led to some fascinating stories by talented writers. But what does the future bode for oil? More specifically, for the world should the unthinkable happen.

A coworker and I have two different views on what would happen should Peak Oil ever occur. Should mankind discover that we have indeed produced more than half of the world’s oil supply, just how would society act? What would people do?

She suggests that the end of upside reserves would lead to greater conservation and increased interest in alternatives. The people would demand more fuel efficient vehicles and governments would have no choice but to comply. Goodbye Hummer, hello Toyota Prius.

However, should oil levels drop down to final stages, she would hope for society eventually reverting to a neo-Victorian era, with people getting around in horsedrawn carriages, trains and other steam-powered vehicles. It will be the end of the mega-economic era that energy has given us, but people would eventually get used to the idea.

I, on the other hand, see a far more pessimistic setting for things to come. Blame it on a childhood of watching “Mad Max” one too many times, but I see people going at each other’s throats for the last few drops. We in the Western world have been spoiled by having easy access to oil. We can not comprehend a time when we couldn’t just fill up our gas tank and drive where ever we wanted to. Or hop on a plane and be on the other side of the world in hours. Oil has given us a somewhat unrealistic notion of just how big the Earth actually is, and has allowed us to master our destinies.

Now take that away. Take away your automobiles, your commuter planes, your power plants, your what have you. Take those things away from a society that has been built around being able to comfortably travel dozens of miles every day. That’s used to having the lights on at night. It sounds pretty spooky.

Horsedrawn carriages? What does the typical middle-aged person know about that? Not much, but he does know his neighbor has some gas. Look at history. Look at how people behaved in desperate situations. Elie Wiesel said in his semi-autobiographical novel “Night” that he watched starving people beat each other to death over a few crumbs of bread. People, even normally decent people, will behave violently in extreme situations. There were reports of people shooting gas station owners during the oil crisis in the 1970s. And that was a crisis caused by political situations that were not effecting supply.

Most people aren’t that bad, but there are enough selfish people to cause trouble for the rest of us, and it’s that fear of other people coming to take your stuff that perpetuates the cycle to begin with.

So please, I ask that oil companies keep seeking innovative ways to get oil. I’m encouraging the industry to stay healthy, stay active, keep finding those reserves. I’m begging you here. I don’t want to be on the roads with Mel Gibson fighting off mohawked crazies trying to shoot me for my fumes.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; spayne@hartenergy.com

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