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You Know, Sometimes These Analogies Write Themselves

October 31st, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

A boy under orders from his father to swipe McCain-Palin campaign signs and replace them with Obama-Biden ones got a shocking lesson yesterday morning.

In North Carolina, where Barack Obama is currently leading in votes,  McCain supporter Shawn Turschak had apparently had campaign signs in his front yard stolen several times. So to combat this, he hooked an electrical current from his pet fence up to his latest sign. When the nine-year old son of Andrew Noble attempted to swipe the sign, he got a jolt. The father of the boy then confronted Turschak, and later the sheriff swung by to check on the situation.

Video of the encounter is up on YouTube.

The father’s excuse, by the way, was that his son was just going up to the sign to see how it was set up. I swear, that was the excuse he came up with. These types of people are so precious to me, I mean it.

Now, I know I should boast of anything, but there’s a good analogy in here about Obama’s policies. This kid, while acting under orders from a superior, decided to steal someone else’s property and replace it with something the owner did not want. The owner fought against this theft and was scolded by the thief for not being neighborly and allowing him to tamper with the owner’s property.

So now, in the closing days of the election, we have a nice little metaphor for what people can expect with the possible Obama election. Unfair to read that much into it? Yeah, of course it is. Still, we have to have something to laugh about in these final days of campaign agony.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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Final Week Of The Longest Presidential Campaign Ever

October 29th, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Can it be? Is it possible? Are there really only six days left until this endurance contest is over? Next Tuesday, Americans will decide who the next president will be. Thank goodness!

It’s been a strange two years.  The never-ending campaign has been soul-sucking. Never before have I seen a contest stretched for so long, with so many talking heads, political movies and late-night comedy.

I’m exhausted. I have a feeling the country is exhausted. We just want it to be over. Stick a fork in it, it’s done. But it’s not. There’s still so many hours left. Enough to inundate me with more talking points than I could ever care to learn.

So now, as the oil industry enters a strange phase, one must wonder just where it’s going to be in the aftermath. Opening up more domestic drilling was great campaign rhetoric, but now that our focus is on the economy and not our gas tanks, I wonder how much the American voters will consider the effect their vote will have. Probably not very much, as energy is not as important an issue as national security, health care and the Iraq war (actually, it is, but don’t tell that to the voters, they’ll throw daggers at you).

So get ready people, maybe it will be Morning in America again, or whatever populist rant gets your goat. For me, it’s just four more years of nonsense to look forward to.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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The Sound Of Silence

October 27th, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Remember back in July when everyone was gnashing their teeth and screaming invective at the oil industry in the wake of $150 oil? Remember how politicians were screaming about crooked companies? How Exxon’s record profits were fodder for late-night talk show hosts?

It all seems like ancient history now. At $60 oil, where is the anger? Where is the frustration? Where are the calls for revenge, the demand to have energy executives arrested and perp-walked down Wall Street? Where are the screams to nationalize the country’s oil reserves, to investigate energy firms for manipulating prices? Where did all the hatred go?

Gone. Swept away. Maybe’s it’s the election buzz. Maybe people became anesthetized after sitting through “High School Musical 3.” Maybe the fairy godmother wished all the badness away. Whatever the case, gasoline is down to $2.20 a gallon and things are starting to get quiet as the energy prices readjust themselves.

It’s certainly not a time to celebrate for everyone. Natural gas prices as hanging just above $6 per MMBtu, the minimum threshold needed to keep unconventional gas plays like the Haynesville shale solvent. OPEC certainly isn’t happy about this drop, which will cause lots of problems for the member countries’ social programs. And the sudden drop in prices have caused several energy company executives have to take on the role of distressed sellers as they forked over their company shares to cover margin calls.

But for the American public? It’s like Christmas has come two months early. True, energy demand had been down for quite a while, and the market was so out of whack that prices jumped up to an all time high seemingly against the reality of worldwide demand. Overall energy usage is down despite the drop in prices, which suggests the American public still hasn’t found its price equilibrium yet.

But the rage levels from a few months ago have for the most part subsided. No telling how long it will last, but it remains obvious that when it comes to the public’s perception of the energy industry, the anger is only as strong as the cost of the last trip to the gas station.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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Is Oil Dependency Dragging Us Down?

October 23rd, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman was on “Real Time With Bill Maher” last Friday, where he had not a few nice things to say about the oil industry.

He took some cheap shots at Sarah Palin, claiming she’s an energy expert in the same way that the King of Saudi Arabia is, by accident of birth and not through any sort of merit. He also attacked the “drill baby drill” mantra as being the dumbest bumper sticker expression to come out of a political campaign.

And then he went on about energy technology. Friedman sees U.S. oil dependence as something dragging us down and keeping us from switching to a viable alternative source. He sees that call to increase oil production being equivalent to buyers wishing to purchase more typewriters on the eve of the computer revolution.

Now, to a certain extent, Mr. Friedman is correct. And when the next great energy source comes along, I’m sure a good portion of society will be chastised for slavishly staying loyal to oil. But that time has not come yet. Oil is still needed, very much so, and Mr. Friedman’s eyes are unfortunately bigger than his stomach.

But making snap judgements about the near future hasn’t really been Friedman’s forte. After all, this is the man who has a satirical unit of measurement named after him called the Friedman unit which basically argues that “the next six months” will be the final say on any matter. If that’s the case, I hope that oil doesn’t become obsolete in the next six months. I haven’t even paid off my car yet.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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Chavez Promising Lower Oil Prices Won’t Affect Social Programs

October 22nd, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Looks like Hugo Chavez might have to curtail his revolution of love and hoping and loving hope until he hopes there’s still enough love to go around. Lower oil prices may make some of his more ambitious political moves unattainable.

According to the Financial Times: “As oil prices continue their precipitous decline, the doomsayers in Venezuela are predicting trouble for Hugo Chávez, the president, whose political success owes much to a leap in income from oil exports - mostly to the US – in recent years.”

But of course, Chavez is trying to spin the situation, claiming that as long as oil remains in the $90 range the country should be fine. The problem with that is, it won’t be fine.

Look, those “focus groups,” payments to “freedom fighters” and other signs of democracy are not going to pay for themselves. We’re probably going to see a visible reduction in Chavez’s presense in foreign affairs, and odds are if oil prices stay low long enough, the citizens will be done with him as well.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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I Don’t Much Like Things Around Election Time

October 22nd, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

For the past year, I’ve seen a lot of mudslinging, insinuations, negative campaigning, boorish ranting and dirty tricks. I’ve seen namecalling, anger, frustration, scandals, propaganda and cartoonish belittling play out on the national stage. And you know what conclusion I’ve come to? I really like my country around election time.

This can be chalked up to a lot of things. A visit to an blog exposes you to ignorance and vitriolic bile. Words like communist and fascist are thrown around so lightly, used so incessantly that I have to question if such phrases even mean anything anymore.

The late-night talk shows have become a haven for anti-McCain diatribes. Talk radio has become a sounding board for anti-Obama smears. Neither side has anything more than slavish devotion to their gang colors.

I can’t hear McCain or Obama’s voices anymore without wanting to vomit on reflex. Names like “Joe the Plumber” and Bill Ayers swirl around my mind in a tornado of confusion and talking points. I didn’t even know what ACORN was a few weeks ago but now I’m supposed to hate it. Being a POW or a community organizer is a “bad” thing. Defending your opponent as being a fellow patriot gets you booed.

I think I know what the problem here is. Remember how in the movie “Anger Management” Jack Nicholson warns that there are two ways of dealing with anger: the first is to let it out frequently so you have cathartic release. The second is to allow it to fester until you snap.

I get the distinct feeling the American public deals with politics the second way. We think democracy only happens on Election Day and the rest of the time we’re just supposed to sit back and accept how our country is doing. So during the closing of the campaign season, we have four-years of pent-up rage to release over a few weeks, and it comes out like this.

Man, I’m going to have to listen to The Temptations’ “Ball of Confusion” after work.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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Just A Few Helpful Suggestions For The Iraqi Government To Combat Its Reduced 2009 Budget

October 17th, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Well, misery loves company, right? Just in case you were thinking your slumping 401k was bad, the Iraqi govenment said it’s expecting a $15 billion drop in budget for 2009 due to lowered oil prices.

Iraqi parliament lawmaker Abbas al-Bayati said the 2009 budget was based on $120 oil prices, and the drop to around $70 will cause the country to have to cut spending from $79 billion to $64 billion.

Now, I know all of you want to shed tears at the thought of not sending a larger amount of your dollars over to Iraq, but have heart! The Iraqis do have other options, which I will share with you now.

1. Saddam Hussein museums: Nothing says guilt money like tourists flocking to see the sites of atrocities. Hey, if people will travel to Auschwitz or Salem, Massachusetts, odds are they wouldn’t mind seeing some of Hussein’s torture chambers.

2. Amusement parks: Think of all the fun that can be had at an Iraq-themed amusement park. How about a ride that travels through the political quagmire of the war? Or patrons can take turns pulling down a large, mock statue of Hussein. And for the kids, think of the hours of fun to be had crawling through the spider-hole tunnels. But children are warned not to kick the Chemical Ali costumed characters too hard, who knows what will leak out.

3. Film studios: Look, Hollywood’s going to keep on making anti-war movies no matter how poorly they do at the box office. You want them to make those things out in the Mojave Desert? Heck know, we know the modern filmgoer demands authenticity. I say set up a film studio smack dab in the middle of the Green Zone. If George Clooney wants to make a statement, let him do so in the thick of it.

4. Class trips: Give students a chance to visit the Tigris and Euphrates river valley and see where civilization began. After spending a few days there, they’ll realize why most human beings left.

The Iraqis are free to use any of these, I ‘m sure they could use the added revenue.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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OPEC In A Pickle: Worldwide Demand Could Curb Production

October 15th, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

OPEC is going to be facing some serious obstacles when it convenes November 18 to discuss the new oil production levels.

OPEC officials have stated that they’re satisfied with $100 oil, but the rest of the world clearly isn’t. Today prices dropped to $76 a barrel, and it seems a worldwide economic slowdown is in order. But tell that the countries that have become reliant on appeasing their populations with free goodies.

$100+ oil worked out really great for countries like Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, which have large populations of spoiled citizens who think it’s the government’s job to provide free services to them. Maybe it’s the countries’ faults for taking advantage of a cash product in order to keep the population in check. Dictator’s should take note, you’re only as good as the last favor you did for the population.

Oh, who am I kidding? Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are screwed up either way. They’re both filled with racist, xenophobic populations that just got worse as they got richer. Well heck, that last sentence could probably discribe a few first world countries as well, but I digress.

In any case, I don’t expect oil to go back down to $50. Why? Because  China, which is importing 4.5 million barrels a day, has an economy that isn’t based on reality. And, for the past few weeks, the U.S. economy hasn’t been very rational either. China will keep buying oil regardless of demand because they’ll want to stockpile it as a political tool. “The Great Leap Forward, Part II” apparently. Only this time, with actual capitalism involved.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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My Mind Returns To “Punishment Park”: An Examination Of “An American Carol” And The Views It Expresses

October 13th, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

This past weekend I went to see the new conservative spoof comedy “An American Carol,” a satire on filmmaker Michael Moore and the fringe left-wing ideologies that are allowed free-reign in Hollywood. While director David Zucker uses Moore as a scapegoat, his clear passion seems to be to underlie the fact that films with liberal message are so ingrained in the Hollywood collective that they are no longer even seen as left-wing by the studio systems that create them or the movie critics who heap praises on them.

The film was very entertaining, and I was pleased to see some sacred cows get sacrificed. Michael Malone (Kevin Farely), a thinly-veiled spoof of you-know-who, comes across as a crass, arrogant and ill-informed prophet of socialism and cheerleader for America’s enemies. This may also be the first film to skewer the 9/11 Was an Inside Job crowd, which has long been overdue. But despite it’s successes, I was left with some feelings of disappointment and at points just plain dirty at some of the messages the film was preaching.

Moore’s place in history has been secured by the success of “Fahrenheit 9/11″ (the financial success at least, as opposed to its political failure) so he seems a natural target for ridicule, but the film barely touches on his methods. Even people who agree with messages disagree with the way he chooses to deliver them (”creative” editting of speeches, taking quotes out of context, ambushing people with the camera and making them look like fools when they’re unprepared to answer questions, etc.) So it’s to the film’s detriment that it never really explores much beyond Moore other than right-wing stereotypes of his persona.

Also, the film skates some very thin ice when at once point George Washington, played by Jon Voight, accuses Malone of “abusing his freedom of speech” at one point. That line left me a little uncomfortable. Does Moore really “abuse” the First Amendment? I don’t believe that he does. The only people who I think who abuse free speech are the people who claim that want to topple America and everything it stands for (like say, Communists) and then turn around and want all the protections that America offers when it comes to them being prosecuted for something. But even the ACLU would argue with me on that one: a free society must tolerate all forms of expression, even those that call for it’s destruction.

But where the film does score some good political points is in it’s depiction of Malone as part of a system that has unrealistic expectations for America. At one point he is shown by General George S. Patton (Kelsey Grammar) a scene where English Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain is appeasing the Axis Powers by signing over countries such as Czechoslovakia while Hilter, Mussolini and Tojo innocently sing “Kumbaya.”

It may seem crude, but if Hollywood can crank out anti-war film after anti-war film (”Rendition,” “Redacted,” “Lions For Lambs,” “In The Valley of Elah,” and really too many others to name) with a narrow minded view toward corporations and U.S. foreign policy, than there is certainly space in the marketplace for films such as this as well.

But what strikes me most about the film, and those other ones I’ve just mentioned, is the extreme certainty that the filmmakers dealt with concerning the justness of their own political opinions and worldviews. Each movie is absolutely certain that it’s views are correct. So I’m reminded or any earlier, nearly forgotten film that might make for decent commentary on today’s political climate as well.

The 1971 faux-documentary “Punishment Park” would make a great starting point for how the political fringes of society effect the behavior of its moderates as well. Set in the then near future, the film shows a scenario where the escalation of the Vietnam War has caused the government to essentially ban political protest and arrest dissidents. Protesters are given two choices; either serve an extended prison term, or take part in “Punishment Park,” a survival exercise where prisoners must travel through the desert while being pursued by various law enforcement officials.

It’s a rather angry film, and with an obvious liberal bias, but it does pay lip service to the vicious cycle in which moderate protesters and police officers are forced to become extremists based on the actions of the fringe members of the diametrically opposite groups. The angry protesters kill police officers, forcing the police officers to take drastic measures against the protesters, which in turn causes the more moderate protesters to become increasingly violent to survive. The system feeds itself.

What really would have been fun would have been if “Punishment Park” was spoofed in today’s climate. Characters like Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter being given guns and allowed to hunt Michael Moore, Jon Stewart and Rosie O’Donnell. Now that would be a movie worth watching! Think of the political statements! Think of the opportunity to make fun of “message movies!” Think of the rampant stupidity!

Okay, bad idea. Still, we are less than one month from the Presidential election, and if movies like “An American Carol” and “Rendition” represent the way Americans really feel about each other, we’re going to be in deep trouble come Nov. 5 when a bunch of angry people have to watch a bunch of happy people celebrate, no matter which side of the aisle they’re on.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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Is The Barrow Gang What We Need Right Now?

October 8th, 2008 spayne Posted in Uncategorized No Comments »

Okay, amongst all this crisis regarding the financial market, I tune in yesterday to find out that some corporate executives of AIG, one of the companies being bailed out by the U.S. government, with my tax dollars, decided to celebrate their windfall by going on $400,000 retreat.

So it probably wasn’t good that I watched “Bonnie & Clyde” shortly after hearing this news. Watching Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway blast their way in and out of banks certainly was cathartic during all this nonsense, but it’s probably not the best option for this situation.

It certainly appeals to the masses, however. I mean, one of the negative stereotypes that tossed around the wealthy is that they’re spoiled, inconsiderate, ungrateful and removed from the realities that affect the rest of us. This little retreat does little to counter that claim. No one is saying these executives should be walking around as robots, only feeling miserable 24 hours a day.  But when the eyes of the world are on you, and the government is forced to rescue your company because you ran it into the ground, the last thing you need to do is indulge yourself in luxuries and all the trappings of power while the rest of us hoi polloi watch our 401Ks shed some pounds. You’ve just walked on the fighting side of me, AIG execs.

The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee is looking into this activity, and I certainly hope some heads will roll.

But really though, the person who will benefit from this Barack Obama. Already pushing income redistribution plans, this will provide perfect fodder for him to say that the superwealthy are completely dismissive of others’ suffering, and that they will remain greedy and ungrateful as long as they are not punished.

Come November, I’m certain plenty of Americans will be hoping they could be riding with Beatty and Dunaway, hoping to practice some income redistribution. I just hope I’m not one of the innocents caught in the crossfire.

If there is any justice in the world, I hope those rotten execs are sued. In fact, a class-action suit filed on behalf of the American taxpayers would be very nice indeed. And I certainly hope the government learns it’s lesson from the debacle and says that public funds come with strings attached.   Asking execs to skip a trip to the spa in public’s dime isn’t too Draconian of a demand.

–Stephen Payne, Editor, Oil and Gas Investor This Week; www.OilandGasInvestor.com; spayne@hartenergy.com

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